Early clinical predictors of motor function in the upper extremity one month post-stroke.

OBJECTIVE To investigate factors within 3 days post-stroke that could predict severe impairment in motor function in the upper extremity at one month post-stroke. METHODS This cross-sectional study included 104 patients with first-ever stroke and impaired motor function in the upper extremity. Initial impairment in motor function, demographic data, type of stroke and stroke risk factors were chosen as possible predictors. Severe impairment in motor function was defined as ≤ 31p according to the Fugl-Meyer Assessment for Upper Extremity (FMA-UE). Logistic regression was used to predict severe impairment in motor function at one month post-stroke. RESULTS Three possible prediction models were found, comprising stroke severity combined with grip strength and sex, finger extension or shoulder abduction. Models including grip strength or finger extension gave the most accurate predictions, with overall predictive ability 90.4% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.847-0.961) and sensitivity 92.9% (95% CI 0.851-1.0) and 90.5% (95% CI 0.816-0.979), respectively. CONCLUSION Within 3 days post-stroke, severe impairment in motor function in the upper extremity at one month can be predicted using assessment of stroke severity in combination with grip strength, finger extension or shoulder abduction. This may facilitate early planning of rehabilitation for patients with impaired upper extremity in the stroke unit.